Thursday, November 22, 2007

HI Superferry: Break Even Analysis...Conclusions and Follow-up

I began this analysis with limited outsider information, but with enough information to do accurate Break Even and scheduling analysis on the Superferry. I also wanted to financially and logistically evaluate a few comments and ideas mentioned by intelligent speakers on Kauai over the past few months.

Regarding Governor Lingle's last public forum visit to Kauai, toward the end of the forum there was a speaker (I am now told he is Juan Wilson) who proposed three conditions under which the people of Kauai might be able to accept the Superferry back in Nawiliwili Harbor. They are: 1) No vehicles brought to Kauai on the Superferry; 2) Superferry travel interisland at the same speeds as the cruise ships (about 20 to 24 knots); and 3) No expanded security zone in Nawiliwili Harbor.

What I found is that Hawaii Superferry can operate profitably with only passengers and two wheeled vehicles and no 3 and 4+ wheeled vehicles to Kauai, and can operate profitably traveling interisland going no faster than maximum cruise ship speed. I also believe that government officials, particularly Governor Lingle and the Coast Guard, have the responsibility to lift the expanded security zone from Nawiliwili Harbor that would be an insult to the intelligent, freedom loving and law-abiding people of Kauai and Hawaii.

Notwithstanding the above evaluation in the short-term, over the intermediate to long-term, the Superferry with one or two ferries has very high operating expenses that allow for only a small percentage of profit potential with only private sector business. Further, the counter constraints of BEP financials, scheduling time and speed logistics, excessive cost of fuel consumption for this ferry design (which is worsening by the day now with fuel prices increasing), and inherent dangers of this technology to the large numbers of marine mammels in this region of the world make it unlikely that Hawaii Superferry will succeed as a viable commercial business in the intermediate to long-term, short of increasing government intervention and financing.

Aloha, Brad

P.S. In doing some further searches on this. Mainly to see where this BEA pulls up in a Google search, I found a very interesting MIT Masters Degree thesis on very similar issues.
I cite it here:
Here is the author cite:
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat...break even analysis..."Superferry II"...

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