Sorry, I was concentrating on other things over the past day. There is a large swell here starting today. Average swell wave heights from 6 am this morning are 12 to 13 ft. with some sets being 17 to 18 ft. (click on 'Charts' at prior link) and winds are a sustained 15 to 20 knots with frequent gusts up to 20 knots and above. Will be about the same again tomorrow.
This is Beaufort Force 6, Barf 4 (BOM), with higher sets and wind gusts getting it close to Beaufort Force 7, Barf 5. These are the roughest ocean conditions here yet for this Fall/Winter season. Still, it's Small Craft Warning, not Gale Conditions. No indication of large vessel cancellations, as these are just below the Coast Guard required cancellation conditions, but it will be a wildride today and tomorrow, more so in the mornings than in the afternoons.
Still need to do a post on the military stardard of measure for this Motion Sickness Incidence (MSI) and on Barf-O-Meter (BOM). Will do that soon.
Aloha, Brad
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Friday, November 28, 2008
Check it out: Akaku Video from Dec. 13, 2007 "Ship Action"
Was looking for a video that somebody on Kauai asked about. Did not find it yet, but did find the following. Readers on Kauai should be sure to watch from 13:50 forward on the video. You can find it at: http://www.akaku.org/ondemand/?v=8Bp3Sv
Aloha, Brad
Aloha, Brad
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
The "LCS-1 Bridge Wing" Incident
When someone from Alion Science and Technology goes looking for something, I figure it's gotta be interesting:
ISP: Alion Science and Technology
Location
State: Maryland
City: Upper Marlboro
Time of Visit
Nov 25 2008 10:56:48 am
Referring URL
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=bridge%20wing%20on%20lcs-1&spell=1
Search Engine
google.com
Search Words
bridge wing on lcs-1
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry....austal-can-only.html
From Information Dissemination, here is what happened:
See pictures and post: http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2008/11/bonds-between-sailors-and-ships.html
Also see pictures at: http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2008/11/inside-view-of-bridge-wing.html
"...The locks along the Welland Canal are only 80 ft wide, while the Freedom is 58 ft from bridge wing to bridge wing. The crew was able to get through lock 7 at 2:00pm OK without a problem...
About 4:20pm on Tuesday night, with both the tug and USS Freedom (LCS 1) centerline in lock 6, the lock door opened. As would happen the ship would get pushed back a few meters before getting pulled forward a few meters. The tug Ohio, attempting to maneuver was pushing itself off the wall and jerked the ship to starboard, opposite line side. As it turned out, the lock workers had already pulled the lines for USS Freedom (LCS 1), so she started drifting hard to starboard. In an attempt to compensate, Ohio pulled hard to port, too hard, and with a tight line saved Freedom from a hard hit to starboard, but the pull began pulling Freedom to port. Ohio suddenly found itself in a tough position, lining up directly parallel against the port wall, she was unable to find leverage to push off the wall. Ohio, attempting to find leverage, seemed to increase speed a bit to build some momentum forward. Next thing you know, Freedom, which was doing about 1.5 knots and was centered, was all of sudden accelerating quickly being pulled by Ohio which could not escape from the port wall.
Slowly I could see Freedom accelerating to 4 knots moving down the lock. Freedom was running only about 1 knot of its own power, and was steering to keep itself centered. The port bridge wing began to veer into the now open lock gate, which had some sort of grading system sticking out from the lock door. The Captain, who was calling 'hard starboard' from the bridge wing, quickly recognized the situation, literally pushed me off the bridge wing with a look (I was standing near the door looking out seeing the wall close in while being the curious civilian bystanding idiot), grabbed a fender and tossed it in front of the port bridge wing. Next thing I hear is "BOOM!" The fender caught one of the protruding grates from the door and was smashed open at least 4 knots. The ship jerked quickly pushing to starboard, but the tug was still caught parallel to the port wall of the lock moving at a deliberate pace, and couldn't push itself off the wall.
With the tug still trying to get free and moving at about 4 knots, the ship jerked again as the rope to the tug tightened and pulled Freedom towards the grate on the wall again. I turned to see the Captain, and his face had the look of helplessness as he jumped into the bridge from the bridge wing. Still calling orders to stop the ship, the bridge wing smashed again into the grate. Somehow Captain covered the bridge width in about 10 seconds, grabbed a fender from the starboard bridge wing, and was able to get back to the port bridge wing just in time to prevent a third massive hit, placing the new fender in position to prevent another massive collision between the bridge wing and the last protruding grate of the lock door. That fender exploded too, this time all I saw looking out of the bridge wing door was smoke and the Captain fighting to keep the bridge wing from taking another hit.
The tug, still stuck along the port wall, had reversed engines and stopped the ship just after this moment in what felt like a small jerk from my position of the far left window viewing forward on the starboard side. Captain kept the ship in that position for a minute while organizing new fenders to the bridge, removing some of the debris from the damage, and getting the line loose from the ship and tug. There was about 5 furious minutes of activity as the ship sat still only a few feet off the starboard bridge wing. The tug line was let loose, and the tug was able to work itself free into the middle of the lock before the line was used to reposition the ship in center of the lock. Over the next several minutes the ship advanced into lock 5 at 1 knot before the tug positioned itself for the next lock..."
Good post by Galrahn,
Aloha, Brad
ISP: Alion Science and Technology
Location
State: Maryland
City: Upper Marlboro
Time of Visit
Nov 25 2008 10:56:48 am
Referring URL
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=bridge%20wing%20on%20lcs-1&spell=1
Search Engine
google.com
Search Words
bridge wing on lcs-1
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry....austal-can-only.html
From Information Dissemination, here is what happened:
See pictures and post: http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2008/11/bonds-between-sailors-and-ships.html
Also see pictures at: http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2008/11/inside-view-of-bridge-wing.html
"...The locks along the Welland Canal are only 80 ft wide, while the Freedom is 58 ft from bridge wing to bridge wing. The crew was able to get through lock 7 at 2:00pm OK without a problem...
About 4:20pm on Tuesday night, with both the tug and USS Freedom (LCS 1) centerline in lock 6, the lock door opened. As would happen the ship would get pushed back a few meters before getting pulled forward a few meters. The tug Ohio, attempting to maneuver was pushing itself off the wall and jerked the ship to starboard, opposite line side. As it turned out, the lock workers had already pulled the lines for USS Freedom (LCS 1), so she started drifting hard to starboard. In an attempt to compensate, Ohio pulled hard to port, too hard, and with a tight line saved Freedom from a hard hit to starboard, but the pull began pulling Freedom to port. Ohio suddenly found itself in a tough position, lining up directly parallel against the port wall, she was unable to find leverage to push off the wall. Ohio, attempting to find leverage, seemed to increase speed a bit to build some momentum forward. Next thing you know, Freedom, which was doing about 1.5 knots and was centered, was all of sudden accelerating quickly being pulled by Ohio which could not escape from the port wall.
Slowly I could see Freedom accelerating to 4 knots moving down the lock. Freedom was running only about 1 knot of its own power, and was steering to keep itself centered. The port bridge wing began to veer into the now open lock gate, which had some sort of grading system sticking out from the lock door. The Captain, who was calling 'hard starboard' from the bridge wing, quickly recognized the situation, literally pushed me off the bridge wing with a look (I was standing near the door looking out seeing the wall close in while being the curious civilian bystanding idiot), grabbed a fender and tossed it in front of the port bridge wing. Next thing I hear is "BOOM!" The fender caught one of the protruding grates from the door and was smashed open at least 4 knots. The ship jerked quickly pushing to starboard, but the tug was still caught parallel to the port wall of the lock moving at a deliberate pace, and couldn't push itself off the wall.
With the tug still trying to get free and moving at about 4 knots, the ship jerked again as the rope to the tug tightened and pulled Freedom towards the grate on the wall again. I turned to see the Captain, and his face had the look of helplessness as he jumped into the bridge from the bridge wing. Still calling orders to stop the ship, the bridge wing smashed again into the grate. Somehow Captain covered the bridge width in about 10 seconds, grabbed a fender from the starboard bridge wing, and was able to get back to the port bridge wing just in time to prevent a third massive hit, placing the new fender in position to prevent another massive collision between the bridge wing and the last protruding grate of the lock door. That fender exploded too, this time all I saw looking out of the bridge wing door was smoke and the Captain fighting to keep the bridge wing from taking another hit.
The tug, still stuck along the port wall, had reversed engines and stopped the ship just after this moment in what felt like a small jerk from my position of the far left window viewing forward on the starboard side. Captain kept the ship in that position for a minute while organizing new fenders to the bridge, removing some of the debris from the damage, and getting the line loose from the ship and tug. There was about 5 furious minutes of activity as the ship sat still only a few feet off the starboard bridge wing. The tug line was let loose, and the tug was able to work itself free into the middle of the lock before the line was used to reposition the ship in center of the lock. Over the next several minutes the ship advanced into lock 5 at 1 knot before the tug positioned itself for the next lock..."
Good post by Galrahn,
Aloha, Brad
Blast from the Past...Audio File of Austal Welders Interview
I can tell a lot of the readers here are new to this subject.
Late last Spring there was a very interesting interview on KKCR on this subject. That interview became known mostly just on Kauai, but portions of the interview transcript will soon be more widely published elsewhere.
The following link is to Larry Geller's blog where he posted the complete audio file of that interview. The interview is with former welders from the Austal shipyard in Alabama. It's about 45 minutes long; many of you might want to listen to it:
http://disappearednews.com/2008/04/second-program-on-alleged-superferry.html
Aloha, Brad
Late last Spring there was a very interesting interview on KKCR on this subject. That interview became known mostly just on Kauai, but portions of the interview transcript will soon be more widely published elsewhere.
The following link is to Larry Geller's blog where he posted the complete audio file of that interview. The interview is with former welders from the Austal shipyard in Alabama. It's about 45 minutes long; many of you might want to listen to it:
http://disappearednews.com/2008/04/second-program-on-alleged-superferry.html
Aloha, Brad
Monday, November 24, 2008
Shippers want naval blockade of Somali coast
Here is where Hull A616 can be useful, add a helipad or 2 on top, and she's good to go:
Video link: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27811195#27811195
And video: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27811195#27800255
Also video: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27811195#27792439
Check this out: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27811195#26978928
From: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27891003/
"Shippers want naval blockade of Somali coast" (AP) - Mon., Nov. 24, 2008
NATO rejects calls for action to intercept pirate vessels heading out to sea
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia - "Shipping officials from around the world called Monday for a military blockade along Somalia's coast to intercept pirate vessels heading out to sea.
But NATO, which has four warships off the coast of Somalia, rejected a blockade.
Peter Swift, managing director of the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners, said stronger naval action — including aerial and aviation support — is necessary to battle rampant piracy in the Gulf of Aden near Somalia..." Story continues below ↓
Aloha, Brad
Video link: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27811195#27811195
And video: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27811195#27800255
Also video: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27811195#27792439
Check this out: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27811195#26978928
From: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27891003/
"Shippers want naval blockade of Somali coast" (AP) - Mon., Nov. 24, 2008
NATO rejects calls for action to intercept pirate vessels heading out to sea
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia - "Shipping officials from around the world called Monday for a military blockade along Somalia's coast to intercept pirate vessels heading out to sea.
But NATO, which has four warships off the coast of Somalia, rejected a blockade.
Peter Swift, managing director of the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners, said stronger naval action — including aerial and aviation support — is necessary to battle rampant piracy in the Gulf of Aden near Somalia..." Story continues below ↓
Aloha, Brad
Heard on Kauai Coconut Wireless and via the Ether-net
Apparently a few days ago some high level officials with the Hawaii DOT were seen at Nawiliwili Harbor observing the HSF ramp there go through its paces; I'm told to make sure it's not rusted and still works.
Also, have been getting lots of hits recently from Australia, at ALL levels, and I do mean ALL. Also have been getting more hits from Malta with interest in the Incat Natchan vessels, including from a reporter; the ISP address was a newspaper there. The searches from Malta are getting pretty specific, here is one:
Location
Country:
Malta
City:
Balzan
Time of Visit
Nov 23 2008 10:58:54 pm
Referring URL
http://www.google.com.mt/search?hl=mt&q=natchan%20world&start=10&sa=N
Search Engine
google.com.mt
Search Words
natchan world
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry....erries-in-japan.html
Brainstormed some possible names for them:
HSV Maltese Falcon I
HSV Maltese Falcon II
(with artwork of a falcon on each side)
Lastly for now, I plan on doing a thorough post soon on the Motion Sickness Incidence (MSI) standard of measure and compare it to the Barf-O-Meter (BOM). ; )
Aloha, Brad
Also, have been getting lots of hits recently from Australia, at ALL levels, and I do mean ALL. Also have been getting more hits from Malta with interest in the Incat Natchan vessels, including from a reporter; the ISP address was a newspaper there. The searches from Malta are getting pretty specific, here is one:
Location
Country:
Malta
City:
Balzan
Time of Visit
Nov 23 2008 10:58:54 pm
Referring URL
http://www.google.com.mt/search?hl=mt&q=natchan%20world&start=10&sa=N
Search Engine
google.com.mt
Search Words
natchan world
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry....erries-in-japan.html
Brainstormed some possible names for them:
HSV Maltese Falcon I
HSV Maltese Falcon II
(with artwork of a falcon on each side)
Lastly for now, I plan on doing a thorough post soon on the Motion Sickness Incidence (MSI) standard of measure and compare it to the Barf-O-Meter (BOM). ; )
Aloha, Brad
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Catch-up on some local things
Katy Rose of Kauai has been writing some good stuff on this recently, including the following post on her blog, Breaking the Spell: Superferry: John Lehman's Foot Soldiers Unite! You Have Nothing To Lose But Your Dignity!
Just before Halloween, and again within the past week, Go! Airline has been offering deeply discounted inter-island airfares, seemingly timed with the start-up of Mokulele Air's inter-island jet service. In the notice that Go! sent out via e-mail, one-way inter-island airfares are $49. In addition to taking on Mokulele, that is also competition for HSF at a time when HSF is showing signs of commercial weakness. Go! has an e-mail list for these notices that one can subscribe to at: http://www.iflygo.com/. Here's a quote from their most recent marketing effort:
"go! Home for the Holidays!
Dear Valued Customer,
Happy Holidays from go! go! from $49* this holiday season. In celebration of the holidays this year, go! is offering $49* one-way fares for travel between November 17 and December 31, 2008. If you intend to travel before the New Year, be sure to visit www.iflygo.com now because these great deals will go fast. Tickets must be purchased by Wednesday, November 19, 2008. Our goal has always been to bring friends and families together by providing the best service at the lowest possible cost."
Today, the Honolulu Advertiser had a belated article on the JHSV, republished from Air Force Times: Alabama shipyard wins high-speed ship contract. I think it is noteworthly that they did not have one of their own reporters write this article, and even though the article mentions Austal won the contract, the old file photo picture that the Advertiser put next to the article is of an Incat HSV rather than the Austal rendering of JHSV-1, the Austal rendering of which looks a lot more like something that readers of the Advertiser would recognize.
Dick Mayer sent out an e-mail today titled "Shouldn't this require an Environmental Review?" for the CZM permit on the proposed Kahului Harbor Pier 2c Ferry Barge Mooring Modifications. The notice dated October 23, 2008, says the deadline for comments was November 6, 2008...(sorry too late) :
OEQC October 23, 2008
The Environmental Notice COASTAL ZONE NOTICES
Bottom of Page 7 to Page 8
http://oeqc.doh.hawaii.gov/sites/EnvNotice
Federal Consistency Reviews The Hawai`i Coastal Zone Management (CZM) Program has received the following federal actions to review for consistency with the CZM objectives and policies in Chapter 205A, HRS. This public notice is being provided in accordance with section 306(d) (14) of the National Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, as amended...
Kahului Commercial Harbor
Pier 2C Mooring Modification, Maui
...Proposed Action: Modify the existing mooring system at Pier 2C, Kahului
Commercial Harbor, which supports ferry operations. The existing
soft-line mooring system is proposed to be modified to include a mooring
chain to connect Pier 2C to the outward side of the Manaiakalani Barge
and three anchor chains to steady the barge during loading and unloading
operations. During ferry operations, the modified mooring system would draw
the barge against the pier using a winching system. When not in operation,
the mooring line will be slackened and the barge will be held in-place by the
anchors. Currently a tugboat runs continuously during loading and unloading
operations to steady the barge. The modified mooring system would
eliminate the need for the tugboat. Comments Due: November 6, 2008
Also, Ian Lind noticed the following state procurement document requesting a waiver on this matter: http://hawaii.gov/spo2/exempt103d/attachments/form07767.pdf
Aloha, Brad
Just before Halloween, and again within the past week, Go! Airline has been offering deeply discounted inter-island airfares, seemingly timed with the start-up of Mokulele Air's inter-island jet service. In the notice that Go! sent out via e-mail, one-way inter-island airfares are $49. In addition to taking on Mokulele, that is also competition for HSF at a time when HSF is showing signs of commercial weakness. Go! has an e-mail list for these notices that one can subscribe to at: http://www.iflygo.com/. Here's a quote from their most recent marketing effort:
"go! Home for the Holidays!
Dear Valued Customer,
Happy Holidays from go! go! from $49* this holiday season. In celebration of the holidays this year, go! is offering $49* one-way fares for travel between November 17 and December 31, 2008. If you intend to travel before the New Year, be sure to visit www.iflygo.com now because these great deals will go fast. Tickets must be purchased by Wednesday, November 19, 2008. Our goal has always been to bring friends and families together by providing the best service at the lowest possible cost."
Today, the Honolulu Advertiser had a belated article on the JHSV, republished from Air Force Times: Alabama shipyard wins high-speed ship contract. I think it is noteworthly that they did not have one of their own reporters write this article, and even though the article mentions Austal won the contract, the old file photo picture that the Advertiser put next to the article is of an Incat HSV rather than the Austal rendering of JHSV-1, the Austal rendering of which looks a lot more like something that readers of the Advertiser would recognize.
Dick Mayer sent out an e-mail today titled "Shouldn't this require an Environmental Review?" for the CZM permit on the proposed Kahului Harbor Pier 2c Ferry Barge Mooring Modifications. The notice dated October 23, 2008, says the deadline for comments was November 6, 2008...(sorry too late) :
OEQC October 23, 2008
The Environmental Notice COASTAL ZONE NOTICES
Bottom of Page 7 to Page 8
http://oeqc.doh.hawaii.gov/sites/EnvNotice
Federal Consistency Reviews The Hawai`i Coastal Zone Management (CZM) Program has received the following federal actions to review for consistency with the CZM objectives and policies in Chapter 205A, HRS. This public notice is being provided in accordance with section 306(d) (14) of the National Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, as amended...
Kahului Commercial Harbor
Pier 2C Mooring Modification, Maui
...Proposed Action: Modify the existing mooring system at Pier 2C, Kahului
Commercial Harbor, which supports ferry operations. The existing
soft-line mooring system is proposed to be modified to include a mooring
chain to connect Pier 2C to the outward side of the Manaiakalani Barge
and three anchor chains to steady the barge during loading and unloading
operations. During ferry operations, the modified mooring system would draw
the barge against the pier using a winching system. When not in operation,
the mooring line will be slackened and the barge will be held in-place by the
anchors. Currently a tugboat runs continuously during loading and unloading
operations to steady the barge. The modified mooring system would
eliminate the need for the tugboat. Comments Due: November 6, 2008
Also, Ian Lind noticed the following state procurement document requesting a waiver on this matter: http://hawaii.gov/spo2/exempt103d/attachments/form07767.pdf
Aloha, Brad
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Reader Search Results Today on the Scientific Study of Motion Sickness and Related Hull Design for Seakeeping
Well, today among many hits, I had indication of the following useful and related independent reader searches from Spain, New York, and Croatia. The common theme in these is the scientific study of motion sickness and vessel hull design to minimize motion, with a side focus on related ferries that may be for sale. It turns out the Natchan Rera and World were two of the most thoroughly designed and studied HSV's in the world on this matter. Scientific links are below:
Location
Country: Spain
State/Region: Islas Baleares
City: Santa Eulalia Del Ro
Language
Spanish
Time of Visit
Nov 22 2008 4:59:38 am
Referring URL
http://www.google.es/search?hl=es&q=research%20into%20travel%20sickness&btnG=Buscar%20con%20Google&meta
Search Engine
google.es
Search Words
research into travel sickness
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/08/another-bloggers-research-into-motion.html
The above search pulls down the following useful scientific links on motion sickness:
1) http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/motionsickness.html
2) http://www.motion-sickness.co.uk/
3) http://www.eleconomista.es/empresas-finanzas/noticias/569057/05/08/New-Help-for-Travel-Sick-Dogs-from-Pfizer.html
Location
State: New York
City: Bronx
Time of Visit
Nov 22 2008 10:42:29 am
Referring URL
http://www.google.com
Search Engine
google.com
Search Words
roll inertia natchan rera
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/
The above search pulls down the following interesting article from Marine Log in Sept. 2007. Page 2 of the article begins a technical discussion on motion based on ferry vessel design:
http://www.allbusiness.com/transportation/marine-transportation-ferries/5513309-1.html
The above article mentions the following document and author, "Seakeeping of Wave Piercing Catamarans" by Gary Davidson which prompts the following useful search results:
1) SEAKEEPING PERFORMANCES OF A LARGE WAVE-PIERCING CATAMARAN IN BEAM WAVES http://www.marine.osakafu-u.ac.jp/~lab15/papersearch/papers/PDF/2008-002.pdf
2) A Method to Determine Safe Seakeeping Limitations of a High-Speed Craft by Comparative Studies of Model Experimental Results http://www.marine.osakafu-u.ac.jp/~lab15/papersearch/papers/PDF/2008-004.pdf
3) MOTION SICKNESS PREDICTION OF A WAVE PIERCING CATAMARAN AT SEAS http://watlab.lin.vlaanderen.be/imsf/papers/paper09_chihchung_chang_chen.pdf
4) GLOBAL & SLAM LOADS FOR A LARGE WAVEPIERCING CATAMARAN DESIGN http://www.amc.edu.au/system/files/Giles.Thomas.FAST05b.pdf
5) Global Loads Derivation of Large High Speed Vessels http://www.amc.edu.au/system/files/Giles.Thomas.Pacific06.pdf
6) EVALUATION OF FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS AS A TOOL TO PREDICT SEA LOADS WITH THE AID OF TRIALS DATA http://eprints.utas.edu.au/7001/1/Amin_paper.pdf
7) Evaluation of seakeeping and motion characteristics of the Royal Australian Navy wave-piercing catamaran, HMAS Jervis Bay http://dspace.dsto.defence.gov.au/dspace/handle/1947/2298
Location
Country: Croatia
State/Region: Grad Zagreb
City: Zagreb
Language
Croatian (hr)
Time of Visit
Nov 22 2008 7:28:17 am
Referring URL
http://www.google.hr/search?hl=hr&q=incat+wave+piercing+catamaran+ferry+used+sale&start=0&sa=N
Search Engine
google.hr
Search Words
incat wave piercing catamaran ferry used sale
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2007/09/recent-case-study-nzs-lynx-fast-ferry.html
Nice to have a team of researchers from around the world for direction on this, ;)
Aloha, Brad
Location
Country: Spain
State/Region: Islas Baleares
City: Santa Eulalia Del Ro
Language
Spanish
Time of Visit
Nov 22 2008 4:59:38 am
Referring URL
http://www.google.es/search?hl=es&q=research%20into%20travel%20sickness&btnG=Buscar%20con%20Google&meta
Search Engine
google.es
Search Words
research into travel sickness
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/08/another-bloggers-research-into-motion.html
The above search pulls down the following useful scientific links on motion sickness:
1) http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/motionsickness.html
2) http://www.motion-sickness.co.uk/
3) http://www.eleconomista.es/empresas-finanzas/noticias/569057/05/08/New-Help-for-Travel-Sick-Dogs-from-Pfizer.html
Location
State: New York
City: Bronx
Time of Visit
Nov 22 2008 10:42:29 am
Referring URL
http://www.google.com
Search Engine
google.com
Search Words
roll inertia natchan rera
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/
The above search pulls down the following interesting article from Marine Log in Sept. 2007. Page 2 of the article begins a technical discussion on motion based on ferry vessel design:
http://www.allbusiness.com/transportation/marine-transportation-ferries/5513309-1.html
The above article mentions the following document and author, "Seakeeping of Wave Piercing Catamarans" by Gary Davidson which prompts the following useful search results:
1) SEAKEEPING PERFORMANCES OF A LARGE WAVE-PIERCING CATAMARAN IN BEAM WAVES http://www.marine.osakafu-u.ac.jp/~lab15/papersearch/papers/PDF/2008-002.pdf
2) A Method to Determine Safe Seakeeping Limitations of a High-Speed Craft by Comparative Studies of Model Experimental Results http://www.marine.osakafu-u.ac.jp/~lab15/papersearch/papers/PDF/2008-004.pdf
3) MOTION SICKNESS PREDICTION OF A WAVE PIERCING CATAMARAN AT SEAS http://watlab.lin.vlaanderen.be/imsf/papers/paper09_chihchung_chang_chen.pdf
4) GLOBAL & SLAM LOADS FOR A LARGE WAVEPIERCING CATAMARAN DESIGN http://www.amc.edu.au/system/files/Giles.Thomas.FAST05b.pdf
5) Global Loads Derivation of Large High Speed Vessels http://www.amc.edu.au/system/files/Giles.Thomas.Pacific06.pdf
6) EVALUATION OF FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS AS A TOOL TO PREDICT SEA LOADS WITH THE AID OF TRIALS DATA http://eprints.utas.edu.au/7001/1/Amin_paper.pdf
7) Evaluation of seakeeping and motion characteristics of the Royal Australian Navy wave-piercing catamaran, HMAS Jervis Bay http://dspace.dsto.defence.gov.au/dspace/handle/1947/2298
Location
Country: Croatia
State/Region: Grad Zagreb
City: Zagreb
Language
Croatian (hr)
Time of Visit
Nov 22 2008 7:28:17 am
Referring URL
http://www.google.hr/search?hl=hr&q=incat+wave+piercing+catamaran+ferry+used+sale&start=0&sa=N
Search Engine
google.hr
Search Words
incat wave piercing catamaran ferry used sale
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2007/09/recent-case-study-nzs-lynx-fast-ferry.html
Nice to have a team of researchers from around the world for direction on this, ;)
Aloha, Brad
Friday, November 21, 2008
Austal Video Blowout
An Omani reader was doing a search on the Oman ferries 'Shinas' and 'Hormuz' owned by the Sultan of Oman which have had low ridership. Decided to follow the reader's path and found the following video blowout. First, here is their search:
Country: Oman
City: Muscat
Lat/Long: 23.6133, 58.5933
Time of Visit
Nov 21 2008 8:23:24 pm
Referring URL
http://www.google.co.in
Search Engine
google.co.in
Search Words
what is the tourist round trip on shinas and hormuz cruises?
Aloha, Brad
Country: Oman
City: Muscat
Lat/Long: 23.6133, 58.5933
Time of Visit
Nov 21 2008 8:23:24 pm
Referring URL
http://www.google.co.in
Search Engine
google.co.in
Search Words
what is the tourist round trip on shinas and hormuz cruises?
Aloha, Brad
Australian Designed Chinese Type 022 Houbei Class "HellCat"
Was looking at a link within the following old post: http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/02/hi-superferry-chinas-jhsv-military-fast.html
That link which has been updated is at Sinodefence: http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/littoral/type022.asp
The pictures there are pretty interesting:
Credit: www.sinodefence.com
The Type 022 features a wave-piercing catamaran hull design (Chinese Internet). Click here to enlarge.
More Interesting Reader Searches
Somebody in London is doing some interesting research this week. The reader in London has pulled up some interesting case studies:
Location
Country: United Kingdom
State/Region: London, City of
City: London
Time of Visit
Nov 21 2008 11:47:25 am
Referring URL
http://www.google.co.uk/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4GPEA_enGB296GB297&q=case%20study%20of%20a%20ferry%20operator%20company
Search Engine
google.co.uk
Search Words
case study of a ferry operator company
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/10/quick-case-study-on-ferries-in-japan.html
Searches to the following two posts done last January and February of 2008, have become the two most clicked on posts on this blog over the past week. Two searches today going to the first one:
Location
State: District of Columbia
City: Washington
Time of Visit
Nov 21 2008 9:40:02 am
Referring URL http://images.google.com
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/01/more-on-goaljhsv.html
Visit Exit Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/01/more-on-goaljhsv.html
Location
Country: Germany
City: Hamburg
Time of Visit
Nov 21 2008 10:28:56 am
Referring URL
http://images.google.com
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/01/more-on-goaljhsv.html
Visit Exit Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/01/more-on-goaljhsv.html
And a search today going to the second one:
ISP Prospeed.Net,Inc.
Location
State: Massachusetts
City: Tyngsboro
Time of Visit
Nov 21 2008 9:53:53 am
Referring URL
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=missile+catamaran
Search Engine
google.com
Search Words
missile catamaran
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/02/hi-superferry-chinas-jhsv-military-fast.html
Visit Exit Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/02/hi-superferry-chinas-jhsv-military-fast.html
Opportunity for military HSV sales to India
Both of my blogs have been getting a number of research hits from India regarding HSV's and related technology. This reminded me of recent surprising assertive action by the Indian Navy east of Somalia against pirates. It seems the Indian Navy is interested in HSV's and related craft possibly from any one of the makers from patrol boats to HSV cats to maybe even LCS as the Israelis have.
FWIW,
Aloha, Brad
Location
Country: United Kingdom
State/Region: London, City of
City: London
Time of Visit
Nov 21 2008 11:47:25 am
Referring URL
http://www.google.co.uk/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4GPEA_enGB296GB297&q=case%20study%20of%20a%20ferry%20operator%20company
Search Engine
google.co.uk
Search Words
case study of a ferry operator company
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/10/quick-case-study-on-ferries-in-japan.html
Searches to the following two posts done last January and February of 2008, have become the two most clicked on posts on this blog over the past week. Two searches today going to the first one:
Location
State: District of Columbia
City: Washington
Time of Visit
Nov 21 2008 9:40:02 am
Referring URL http://images.google.com
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/01/more-on-goaljhsv.html
Visit Exit Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/01/more-on-goaljhsv.html
Location
Country: Germany
City: Hamburg
Time of Visit
Nov 21 2008 10:28:56 am
Referring URL
http://images.google.com
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/01/more-on-goaljhsv.html
Visit Exit Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/01/more-on-goaljhsv.html
And a search today going to the second one:
ISP Prospeed.Net,Inc.
Location
State: Massachusetts
City: Tyngsboro
Time of Visit
Nov 21 2008 9:53:53 am
Referring URL
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=missile+catamaran
Search Engine
google.com
Search Words
missile catamaran
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/02/hi-superferry-chinas-jhsv-military-fast.html
Visit Exit Page
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/02/hi-superferry-chinas-jhsv-military-fast.html
Opportunity for military HSV sales to India
Both of my blogs have been getting a number of research hits from India regarding HSV's and related technology. This reminded me of recent surprising assertive action by the Indian Navy east of Somalia against pirates. It seems the Indian Navy is interested in HSV's and related craft possibly from any one of the makers from patrol boats to HSV cats to maybe even LCS as the Israelis have.
FWIW,
Aloha, Brad
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Aluminium and Steel Price History
Additional data in furtherance of the following post:
JHSV Contract Awarded Well Over Budget
Aluminium costs into JHSV and LCS are about 50% of what they were as recently as last summer, and steel costs into LCS are about 25% of what they were as recently as last summer:
From: http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/al/al.asp#MoreCharts
We are back to 2004 prices for aluminium:
The recent contract for the one JHSV is over budget beyond any legitimate reason.
Re: LCS and steel cost see: http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/steel_futures/steel_futures.asp
And: http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/Steel/DJSteel.asp
We are also back to 2004 prices for steel:
http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1227229308733&chddm=572424&q=INDEXDJX:.DJUSST&ntsp=0
Below is an interesting graphic on past steel demand by region on the world. Notice the U.S. demand under NAFTA and relatively how large the China demand is. The China demand for steel is what is dramatically falling right now. For what will be happening to China's economy, look for political unrest there within a year or two if these economic trends continue.
Aloha, Brad
JHSV Contract Awarded Well Over Budget
Aluminium costs into JHSV and LCS are about 50% of what they were as recently as last summer, and steel costs into LCS are about 25% of what they were as recently as last summer:
From: http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/al/al.asp#MoreCharts
We are back to 2004 prices for aluminium:
The recent contract for the one JHSV is over budget beyond any legitimate reason.
Re: LCS and steel cost see: http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/steel_futures/steel_futures.asp
And: http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/Steel/DJSteel.asp
We are also back to 2004 prices for steel:
http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1227229308733&chddm=572424&q=INDEXDJX:.DJUSST&ntsp=0
Below is an interesting graphic on past steel demand by region on the world. Notice the U.S. demand under NAFTA and relatively how large the China demand is. The China demand for steel is what is dramatically falling right now. For what will be happening to China's economy, look for political unrest there within a year or two if these economic trends continue.
Aloha, Brad
More Good Reader Questions in the Ether
To the Incat researcher, more interest in the Natchan World. In addition to the idea of Qatar-UAE, there have been a few hits over the past few days from Malta about those two vessels. Also, Hong Kong is nibbling again for information on the two vessels:
Location
Country: Malta
City: Attard
Time: Nov 20 2008 9:28:15 am
Referring URL http://www.google.co... world&start=20&sa=N
Search Engine google.com.mt
Search Words natchan world
Visit Entry Page http://hisuperferry....erries-in-japan.html
Location
Country: Malta
City: Melita
Search Words natchan
Location
Country: Hong Kong
Time: Nov 20 2008 4:50:19 am
Visit Length 9 minutes 55 seconds
Page Views 2
Referring URL http://www.google.com/reader/view/
Visit Entry Page http://hisuperferry....aluminium-steel.html
Country: United Kingdom
State/Region: London, City of
City: London
Referring URL http://www.google.co...IN EUROPE 2008&meta=
Search Engine google.co.uk
Search Words fast ferries economy in europe 2008
Visit Entry Page http://hisuperferry....fast-ferries-in.html
Domain Name navy.mil (Military)
IP Address 138.162.0.# (Navy Network Information Center (NNIC))
ISP Navy Network Information Center (NNIC)
Location
State: Virginia
City: Virginia Beach
Time of Visit Nov 20 2008 5:52:18 am
Visit Length 4 minutes 44 seconds
Page Views 4
Referring URL http://www.google.co...perferry cost austal
Search Engine google.com
Search Words hawaii superferry cost austal
Visit Entry Page http://hisuperferry....hsf-austal-jhsv.html
Visit Exit Page http://hisuperferry....-for-austal-ltd.html
To the Navy reader, here is the page you were looking for: http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/11/jhsv-contract-awarded-well-over-budget.html
Location
Country: India
State/Region: Maharashtra
City: Bombay
Referring URL http://www.google.co.in/
Search Engine google.co.in
Search Words distance between honolulu and kahului
Visit Entry Page http://hisuperferry....y-break-even_21.html
To the Indian reader, the answer is about 105 statutory miles, or about 30 miles more than is commercially viable with the amount of propulsion built into these two vessels.
Location
Country: Azerbaijan
State/Region: Baki
City: Baku
Time of Visit Nov 20 2008 2:44:29 am
Referring URL http://www.google.co...changing&btnG=Search
Search Engine google.com
Search Words why the price of oil is changing
Visit Entry Page http://hisuperferry....rt-term-outlook.html
To the Azerbaijani reader and everybody else looking in, here are a series of good links pertaining to your question:
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/11/whats-happening-with-aluminium-steel.html
http://alohaanalytics.blogspot.com/2008/10/oil-price-temporarily-low.html
http://alohaanalytics.blogspot.com/2008/10/oil-price-changing-short-term-outlook.html
http://alohaanalytics.blogspot.com/2008/10/why-was-there-recent-run-up-and-down-of.html
Aloha, Brad
Location
Country: Malta
City: Attard
Time: Nov 20 2008 9:28:15 am
Referring URL http://www.google.co... world&start=20&sa=N
Search Engine google.com.mt
Search Words natchan world
Visit Entry Page http://hisuperferry....erries-in-japan.html
Location
Country: Malta
City: Melita
Search Words natchan
Location
Country: Hong Kong
Time: Nov 20 2008 4:50:19 am
Visit Length 9 minutes 55 seconds
Page Views 2
Referring URL http://www.google.com/reader/view/
Visit Entry Page http://hisuperferry....aluminium-steel.html
Country: United Kingdom
State/Region: London, City of
City: London
Referring URL http://www.google.co...IN EUROPE 2008&meta=
Search Engine google.co.uk
Search Words fast ferries economy in europe 2008
Visit Entry Page http://hisuperferry....fast-ferries-in.html
Domain Name navy.mil (Military)
IP Address 138.162.0.# (Navy Network Information Center (NNIC))
ISP Navy Network Information Center (NNIC)
Location
State: Virginia
City: Virginia Beach
Time of Visit Nov 20 2008 5:52:18 am
Visit Length 4 minutes 44 seconds
Page Views 4
Referring URL http://www.google.co...perferry cost austal
Search Engine google.com
Search Words hawaii superferry cost austal
Visit Entry Page http://hisuperferry....hsf-austal-jhsv.html
Visit Exit Page http://hisuperferry....-for-austal-ltd.html
To the Navy reader, here is the page you were looking for: http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/11/jhsv-contract-awarded-well-over-budget.html
Location
Country: India
State/Region: Maharashtra
City: Bombay
Referring URL http://www.google.co.in/
Search Engine google.co.in
Search Words distance between honolulu and kahului
Visit Entry Page http://hisuperferry....y-break-even_21.html
To the Indian reader, the answer is about 105 statutory miles, or about 30 miles more than is commercially viable with the amount of propulsion built into these two vessels.
Location
Country: Azerbaijan
State/Region: Baki
City: Baku
Time of Visit Nov 20 2008 2:44:29 am
Referring URL http://www.google.co...changing&btnG=Search
Search Engine google.com
Search Words why the price of oil is changing
Visit Entry Page http://hisuperferry....rt-term-outlook.html
To the Azerbaijani reader and everybody else looking in, here are a series of good links pertaining to your question:
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/11/whats-happening-with-aluminium-steel.html
http://alohaanalytics.blogspot.com/2008/10/oil-price-temporarily-low.html
http://alohaanalytics.blogspot.com/2008/10/oil-price-changing-short-term-outlook.html
http://alohaanalytics.blogspot.com/2008/10/why-was-there-recent-run-up-and-down-of.html
Aloha, Brad
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
What's happening with Aluminium, Steel, Oil, Jet Fuel and other Commodities
Today from the website that the Wall Street Journal and The Economist have called the best economics website on the Internet, www.rgemonitor.com:
Greetings from RGE Monitor!
"Today we turn our attention to commodities, which have been badly battered by the global financial crisis, deleveraging and a worsening economic outlook, with commodity indices having lost 50% of their value since the July peak. With the G10 in recession and many emerging economies slowing sharply, further demand destruction is likely, and it may continue to outpace production cuts. Once the price adjustment filters through to producers, they may account for another source of slower aggregate output.
Despite the steep price declines so far, commodities as a group have only fallen halfway to their 2001-02 trough, meaning they may have farther to fall. Among individual commodities, those that grew the most expensive in the shortest period of time have suffered the sharpest and fastest price drops. In fact, some investors are pricing in a temporary drop in the price of oil below $30 per barrel, far below marginal production costs.
Metals and energy led recent declines, after breaching nominal and inflation-adjusted highs earlier this year. Agricultural commodities took smaller hits as their price climbs were not as excessive – their peak prices this year remained 2-3x below their inflation-adjusted highs in the 1970s. Only newsprint has yielded positive returns this year as of November but its resilience seems unsustainable in the medium-term. Across the commodities group, inventory buildup and falling demand creates conditions ripe for a continuing current bear market despite the fact that some commodities, such as oil, seem to have fallen below production costs.
WTI crude oil futures have fallen from a peak of $147/barrel in mid July to around $55/barrel, well below the 2007 average price. U.S. government data suggest that demand for oil products is about 6-7% lower than last year, with the sharpest declines in jet fuel. Despite the fact that gas prices are now hovering at $2 a gallon and energy costs fell 18% nationwide in October, demand continues to fall. Forecasts from the EIA and OPEC suggest that 2009 might mark make the largest contraction in oil demand in decades, despite the recent price correction. EM oil demand will be insufficient to offset growing declines in the OECD countries. For now, financial market trends and macro fundamentals might point in the same direction, towards weaker energy prices.
Yet, output cuts are reducing supply, removing the surplus reached earlier this year, even as OPEC’s surplus capacity increases. Non-OPEC supplies continue to disappoint. Oil production has declined in Russia, the North Sea and Mexico while new production in Kazakhstan and Brazil has yet to come on stream. In the short-term, it might take a major supply shock - say one that cuts off Iran’s oil supply or major output from the GCC - to really boost prices. The Somali pirate hijacking of a Saudi tanker might raise transport costs as insurance premiums rise and routings increase, and reminds observers of the energy supply chain’s vulnerabilities, but it may not have a major affect on oil market fundamentals. OPEC’s willingness to comply with current (and future?) production cuts may be the most significant supply side factor. Yet the elevated cost of new oil supplies may lead to future supply crunches. Canada’s oil sands are woefully expensive at today’s prices and projects are being deferred if not canceled.
Lower global energy demand, in the face of increasing supply, is also affecting current and expected natural gas prices. EIA has noted that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price projection for 2009 has fallen from $8.17 per Mcf to $6.82. The front month contract price of natural gas on NYMEX has steadily declined and the futures curve has sloped downward. Demand for alternative energy tends to move inversely to fossil fuel prices, so the deep cuts in oil and coal prices could pose a headwind for alternative energy, unless counteracted by climate change mandates. Fortunately for producers, falling grain prices will help relieve the profit margin squeeze, even if the credit crunch impairs borrowing for expansion.
Base metals prices have actually suffered steeper drops than oil. This commodity group is the most sensitive to the slowdown in industrial production. Nickel and zinc initially led the group’s decline, but were succeeded by copper and aluminum. Expectations that supply gluts will mount next year brought metals prices back to levels closer to operating costs. At 50% below historical averages, in real terms, nickel and zinc prices are already triggering production cuts. These two metals’ strongest sources of demand - stainless steel for nickel, auto parts for zinc – are withering, and the supply glut will be exacerbated by output from new mines. Meanwhile, copper and aluminum prices have yet to undershoot their historic? break-even levels. But, slowing housing and infrastructure construction activity worldwide, plus lower automobile demand, may more than offset the supply issues (i.e. labor disputes for copper, power shortages for aluminum) that kept copper and aluminum inventories from building up like other base metals.
Steel prices have nose-dived from above US$1,200/ton in June to below US$300/ton. Prices will likely resume crashing next year, on weakening demand, particularly from China, falling freight costs and lower cost of inputs (coal and iron ore). Like other base metals, the demand collapse has left steel producers with high order books, expensive inventory and limited near-term flexibility. Producers have begun cutting production, but lead times in the steel industry are around 8 weeks, which means production cuts will not materialize until around the turn of the year, meaning stockpiles might increase further.
Inflation hedging and flight-to-safety bids drove gold to a nominal all-time high price of $1033.90 per ounce on March 17, but faded away on deflation fears and broader commodity selloffs. The gold rally stopped far short of the inflation-adjusted high of $2115-2200/oz reached in 1980 and gold languished below $700/oz this summer. After a brief rally in autumn, gold now trades between $700-750, about 28% below the March peak. Slowing inflation and the U.S. dollar’s uptrend sapped support for gold as a store of value despite the possible inflationary consequences of massive fiscal expansion and monetary policy easing to counteract the economic and financial effects of the global credit crisis. Though gold tends to be less sensitive to a global economic slowdown than industrial metals or energy commodities, deflation is a clear and present danger for gold prices. Even physical demand for gold – mostly for decorative use – looks likely to weaken alongside consumer confidence.
Agricultural commodities have outperformed metals and oil, although that just means their prices dropped the least. Agriculturals are the commodity sub-sector least sensitive to the economic cycle, but have nonetheless suffered from the deleveraging which has seen investors move into cash. Cotton prices have fallen the most (-45.29% ytd Nov 14), and sugar the least (-3.96%). Livestock prices plunged on faltering protein demand as the global growth slowdown reduces incomes. While metals and energy prices struck both nominal and real all-time high prices, agricultural prices just rose above the historical lows of the 1980s, remaining far below the inflation-adjusted highs of the 1970s. Fundamental drivers such as biofuel production, population growth, and the rising income and protein demand of developing countries, argue for a secular bull market. In the medium-term though, the exit of speculators and the supply overhang from production growth may bring downward pressure – especially in grains. As the global economy recovers, agricultural prices should speed their uptrend, tempered by the fact that agricultural commodities are renewable resources unlike metals and fossil fuels.
Long-run fundamentals of supply and demand suggest a resumption of the uptrend in commodity prices in a few years, but a global recession, a strong dollar and forced fund liquidations in the medium-term will keep prices under pressure until late 2009. True, the commodity slump sows the seeds of its own destruction, by causing producers to cut back or delay investments, thereby raising the risk of a future supply crunch. This pro-cyclicality is nothing new. Nonetheless, the anticipated price recovery will be gradual if the current financial crisis permanently restricts the ability to leverage, which was key to the world’s high growth rates posted in the past few years.
Slowing Chinese economic growth has contributed to the collapse in commodity prices, just as expectations of Chinese demand growth drove the recent bubble. Imports of key metals have slowed sharply since July, and the slackening industrial production growth – 8.2% in October, a 7-year low – indicates no reversal. Meanwhile, Chinese electricity production actually fell in October, the first such contraction in a decade, suggesting that China’s slowdown might be more pronounced and that the price of coal, the prime fuel for power plants, could fall further.
While the infrastructure focus of China’s recent fiscal stimulus may support commodity demand, especially for some base metals, it may only offset the reduction in demand from the property and manufacturing sectors. Meanwhile, Chinese stockpiles of many commodities may take time to absorb, meaning that Chinese commodity demand might remain weak until the second half of 2009. This changing dynamic has, however, changed the pricing power in the iron ore market, a reversal from some months ago when global companies like Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Vale sought very large iron ore price hikes from China and other Asian customers.
The reduction in global commodity demand is now providing headwinds for shipping. The Commodity boom of recent years sparked a global trade and shipping boom, reflected in the surge in the Baltic Dry Index which almost doubled between 2006 and 2007. In spite of easing global manufacturing trade since early-2008, global freight and the Baltic Index proceeded to hit an all time high in May 2008, buoyed by high commodity prices. But since then, easing food shortages, commodity price correction, and the slowdown in industrial activity across the G-7 and in EMs have reduced demand for key industrial commodities and raw materials, pulling down the Baltic Dry Index by over 90% ytd. Moreover, the escalation of the credit crisis has blocked access to trade credit for commodity importers and exporters, posing the risk of stalling the movement of goods across the global manufacturing supply chain.
Capacity shortages in bulk and oil drilling, shipping, inadequate port facilities and longer shipping duration between commodity importers and exporters have raised transportation costs, boosting the final price of commodities. Even as shipping companies face the credit crunch and high oil prices, existing investment in ship building by commodity-related firms and countries might somewhat improve shipping capacity by 2010 to match the demand. Moreover, global trade and shipping face an impending demand slowdown in the coming quarters, as output slows further and recovery may lag the global economic recovery. The reduction in demand from commodity producers for other goods may accentuate the effect of the commodity correction on global manufactured goods.
The recent sharp decline in the price of oil is now starting to hit the fiscal bottom line of key oil exporting economies, meaning some of them could run fiscal deficits next year, if oil prices remain at yesterday’s ($55) level. On average, Middle Eastern oil exporters require a $50-55 a barrel oil price to balance their budgets – and countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela require a higher price. As a result, to maintain current spending (a likely political necessity) several oil exporters might have to issue more domestic debt or spend their accumulated savings. Oil output cuts only raise the break-even price, a fact of which OPEC members are no doubt very aware, as they prepare for yet another meeting later this month. Further production cuts seem (again) to be almost a foregone conclusion though. Meanwhile, with current oil prices, oil exporters may no longer be a surplus region next year. The erosion of their current account surpluses, sparked in part by the pressure to spend more at home to support domestic asset markets, should reduce their purchases of foreign assets. It may be no surprise that GCC oil exporters have been lukewarm in their support of Gordon Brown’s IMF fundraising.
The fall in commodity prices has varied effects on Latin America. Chilean exports have been hit by the falling price of copper, of which it is the world’s top supplier Copper exports fell 28.6% y/y to USD 2.7bn in October, consistent with the downward trend and the sharp drop in copper prices of 29.5% y/y. Chile's peso has felt the pinch of the sliding global economy and copper prices.
Current oil prices will curtail ambitious plans to cushion the impact of a U.S. recession through public infrastructure investment in Mexico. Estimates show that a $10 drop in the price of Mexico’s crude oil mix leads to a drop in public sector revenues of approximately 0.3% of GDP . Using a price forecast of $60.0 for the WTI in 2009, the shortfall in revenues, relative to budget estimates, would be equivalent to 0.7% of GDP, or roughly $7.6bn. Meanwhile, the oil price collapse will also hamper Venezuela's wide-ranging petro-diplomacy. Venezuela's capacity to borrow abroad to finance ambitious social programs may well atrophy, reinforcing the decline in President Hugo Chavez's standing at home on the eve of local elections.
The downward trend in commodity prices will clearly affect Brazil, through a decrease in exports. Unlike commodity driven countries like Chile and Peru, Brazil has a more diversified export base. Meanwhile, the decrease in commodity prices should reduce inflationary pressures, which in turn may give more freedom to the Brazilian Central Bank, which may not need to hike interest rates at the same rate as in 2008. The expected further reduction in growth or negative growth in emerging and developed economies, rather than the fall in commodity prices alone will have more effect on Brazil’s economic outlook.
Major exporters like Canada and Australia which experienced major terms of trade bumps during the commodity boom are also vulnerable, even if commodities make up a smaller portion of their growth and exports than the fuel exporters in the emerging world.
If commodity prices remain weak, producers will lower consumption over time, removing a source of aggregate demand that offset slowing growth earlier this year. For example, export growth from Middle Eastern, Latin American and African economies helped Asian goods exporters to offset slowing demand from the U.S., and more recently the EU. If that demand slows, it may be the final nail for many Asian exporters."
Aloha, Brad
Greetings from RGE Monitor!
"Today we turn our attention to commodities, which have been badly battered by the global financial crisis, deleveraging and a worsening economic outlook, with commodity indices having lost 50% of their value since the July peak. With the G10 in recession and many emerging economies slowing sharply, further demand destruction is likely, and it may continue to outpace production cuts. Once the price adjustment filters through to producers, they may account for another source of slower aggregate output.
Despite the steep price declines so far, commodities as a group have only fallen halfway to their 2001-02 trough, meaning they may have farther to fall. Among individual commodities, those that grew the most expensive in the shortest period of time have suffered the sharpest and fastest price drops. In fact, some investors are pricing in a temporary drop in the price of oil below $30 per barrel, far below marginal production costs.
Metals and energy led recent declines, after breaching nominal and inflation-adjusted highs earlier this year. Agricultural commodities took smaller hits as their price climbs were not as excessive – their peak prices this year remained 2-3x below their inflation-adjusted highs in the 1970s. Only newsprint has yielded positive returns this year as of November but its resilience seems unsustainable in the medium-term. Across the commodities group, inventory buildup and falling demand creates conditions ripe for a continuing current bear market despite the fact that some commodities, such as oil, seem to have fallen below production costs.
WTI crude oil futures have fallen from a peak of $147/barrel in mid July to around $55/barrel, well below the 2007 average price. U.S. government data suggest that demand for oil products is about 6-7% lower than last year, with the sharpest declines in jet fuel. Despite the fact that gas prices are now hovering at $2 a gallon and energy costs fell 18% nationwide in October, demand continues to fall. Forecasts from the EIA and OPEC suggest that 2009 might mark make the largest contraction in oil demand in decades, despite the recent price correction. EM oil demand will be insufficient to offset growing declines in the OECD countries. For now, financial market trends and macro fundamentals might point in the same direction, towards weaker energy prices.
Yet, output cuts are reducing supply, removing the surplus reached earlier this year, even as OPEC’s surplus capacity increases. Non-OPEC supplies continue to disappoint. Oil production has declined in Russia, the North Sea and Mexico while new production in Kazakhstan and Brazil has yet to come on stream. In the short-term, it might take a major supply shock - say one that cuts off Iran’s oil supply or major output from the GCC - to really boost prices. The Somali pirate hijacking of a Saudi tanker might raise transport costs as insurance premiums rise and routings increase, and reminds observers of the energy supply chain’s vulnerabilities, but it may not have a major affect on oil market fundamentals. OPEC’s willingness to comply with current (and future?) production cuts may be the most significant supply side factor. Yet the elevated cost of new oil supplies may lead to future supply crunches. Canada’s oil sands are woefully expensive at today’s prices and projects are being deferred if not canceled.
Lower global energy demand, in the face of increasing supply, is also affecting current and expected natural gas prices. EIA has noted that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price projection for 2009 has fallen from $8.17 per Mcf to $6.82. The front month contract price of natural gas on NYMEX has steadily declined and the futures curve has sloped downward. Demand for alternative energy tends to move inversely to fossil fuel prices, so the deep cuts in oil and coal prices could pose a headwind for alternative energy, unless counteracted by climate change mandates. Fortunately for producers, falling grain prices will help relieve the profit margin squeeze, even if the credit crunch impairs borrowing for expansion.
Base metals prices have actually suffered steeper drops than oil. This commodity group is the most sensitive to the slowdown in industrial production. Nickel and zinc initially led the group’s decline, but were succeeded by copper and aluminum. Expectations that supply gluts will mount next year brought metals prices back to levels closer to operating costs. At 50% below historical averages, in real terms, nickel and zinc prices are already triggering production cuts. These two metals’ strongest sources of demand - stainless steel for nickel, auto parts for zinc – are withering, and the supply glut will be exacerbated by output from new mines. Meanwhile, copper and aluminum prices have yet to undershoot their historic? break-even levels. But, slowing housing and infrastructure construction activity worldwide, plus lower automobile demand, may more than offset the supply issues (i.e. labor disputes for copper, power shortages for aluminum) that kept copper and aluminum inventories from building up like other base metals.
Steel prices have nose-dived from above US$1,200/ton in June to below US$300/ton. Prices will likely resume crashing next year, on weakening demand, particularly from China, falling freight costs and lower cost of inputs (coal and iron ore). Like other base metals, the demand collapse has left steel producers with high order books, expensive inventory and limited near-term flexibility. Producers have begun cutting production, but lead times in the steel industry are around 8 weeks, which means production cuts will not materialize until around the turn of the year, meaning stockpiles might increase further.
Inflation hedging and flight-to-safety bids drove gold to a nominal all-time high price of $1033.90 per ounce on March 17, but faded away on deflation fears and broader commodity selloffs. The gold rally stopped far short of the inflation-adjusted high of $2115-2200/oz reached in 1980 and gold languished below $700/oz this summer. After a brief rally in autumn, gold now trades between $700-750, about 28% below the March peak. Slowing inflation and the U.S. dollar’s uptrend sapped support for gold as a store of value despite the possible inflationary consequences of massive fiscal expansion and monetary policy easing to counteract the economic and financial effects of the global credit crisis. Though gold tends to be less sensitive to a global economic slowdown than industrial metals or energy commodities, deflation is a clear and present danger for gold prices. Even physical demand for gold – mostly for decorative use – looks likely to weaken alongside consumer confidence.
Agricultural commodities have outperformed metals and oil, although that just means their prices dropped the least. Agriculturals are the commodity sub-sector least sensitive to the economic cycle, but have nonetheless suffered from the deleveraging which has seen investors move into cash. Cotton prices have fallen the most (-45.29% ytd Nov 14), and sugar the least (-3.96%). Livestock prices plunged on faltering protein demand as the global growth slowdown reduces incomes. While metals and energy prices struck both nominal and real all-time high prices, agricultural prices just rose above the historical lows of the 1980s, remaining far below the inflation-adjusted highs of the 1970s. Fundamental drivers such as biofuel production, population growth, and the rising income and protein demand of developing countries, argue for a secular bull market. In the medium-term though, the exit of speculators and the supply overhang from production growth may bring downward pressure – especially in grains. As the global economy recovers, agricultural prices should speed their uptrend, tempered by the fact that agricultural commodities are renewable resources unlike metals and fossil fuels.
Long-run fundamentals of supply and demand suggest a resumption of the uptrend in commodity prices in a few years, but a global recession, a strong dollar and forced fund liquidations in the medium-term will keep prices under pressure until late 2009. True, the commodity slump sows the seeds of its own destruction, by causing producers to cut back or delay investments, thereby raising the risk of a future supply crunch. This pro-cyclicality is nothing new. Nonetheless, the anticipated price recovery will be gradual if the current financial crisis permanently restricts the ability to leverage, which was key to the world’s high growth rates posted in the past few years.
Slowing Chinese economic growth has contributed to the collapse in commodity prices, just as expectations of Chinese demand growth drove the recent bubble. Imports of key metals have slowed sharply since July, and the slackening industrial production growth – 8.2% in October, a 7-year low – indicates no reversal. Meanwhile, Chinese electricity production actually fell in October, the first such contraction in a decade, suggesting that China’s slowdown might be more pronounced and that the price of coal, the prime fuel for power plants, could fall further.
While the infrastructure focus of China’s recent fiscal stimulus may support commodity demand, especially for some base metals, it may only offset the reduction in demand from the property and manufacturing sectors. Meanwhile, Chinese stockpiles of many commodities may take time to absorb, meaning that Chinese commodity demand might remain weak until the second half of 2009. This changing dynamic has, however, changed the pricing power in the iron ore market, a reversal from some months ago when global companies like Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Vale sought very large iron ore price hikes from China and other Asian customers.
The reduction in global commodity demand is now providing headwinds for shipping. The Commodity boom of recent years sparked a global trade and shipping boom, reflected in the surge in the Baltic Dry Index which almost doubled between 2006 and 2007. In spite of easing global manufacturing trade since early-2008, global freight and the Baltic Index proceeded to hit an all time high in May 2008, buoyed by high commodity prices. But since then, easing food shortages, commodity price correction, and the slowdown in industrial activity across the G-7 and in EMs have reduced demand for key industrial commodities and raw materials, pulling down the Baltic Dry Index by over 90% ytd. Moreover, the escalation of the credit crisis has blocked access to trade credit for commodity importers and exporters, posing the risk of stalling the movement of goods across the global manufacturing supply chain.
Capacity shortages in bulk and oil drilling, shipping, inadequate port facilities and longer shipping duration between commodity importers and exporters have raised transportation costs, boosting the final price of commodities. Even as shipping companies face the credit crunch and high oil prices, existing investment in ship building by commodity-related firms and countries might somewhat improve shipping capacity by 2010 to match the demand. Moreover, global trade and shipping face an impending demand slowdown in the coming quarters, as output slows further and recovery may lag the global economic recovery. The reduction in demand from commodity producers for other goods may accentuate the effect of the commodity correction on global manufactured goods.
The recent sharp decline in the price of oil is now starting to hit the fiscal bottom line of key oil exporting economies, meaning some of them could run fiscal deficits next year, if oil prices remain at yesterday’s ($55) level. On average, Middle Eastern oil exporters require a $50-55 a barrel oil price to balance their budgets – and countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela require a higher price. As a result, to maintain current spending (a likely political necessity) several oil exporters might have to issue more domestic debt or spend their accumulated savings. Oil output cuts only raise the break-even price, a fact of which OPEC members are no doubt very aware, as they prepare for yet another meeting later this month. Further production cuts seem (again) to be almost a foregone conclusion though. Meanwhile, with current oil prices, oil exporters may no longer be a surplus region next year. The erosion of their current account surpluses, sparked in part by the pressure to spend more at home to support domestic asset markets, should reduce their purchases of foreign assets. It may be no surprise that GCC oil exporters have been lukewarm in their support of Gordon Brown’s IMF fundraising.
The fall in commodity prices has varied effects on Latin America. Chilean exports have been hit by the falling price of copper, of which it is the world’s top supplier Copper exports fell 28.6% y/y to USD 2.7bn in October, consistent with the downward trend and the sharp drop in copper prices of 29.5% y/y. Chile's peso has felt the pinch of the sliding global economy and copper prices.
Current oil prices will curtail ambitious plans to cushion the impact of a U.S. recession through public infrastructure investment in Mexico. Estimates show that a $10 drop in the price of Mexico’s crude oil mix leads to a drop in public sector revenues of approximately 0.3% of GDP . Using a price forecast of $60.0 for the WTI in 2009, the shortfall in revenues, relative to budget estimates, would be equivalent to 0.7% of GDP, or roughly $7.6bn. Meanwhile, the oil price collapse will also hamper Venezuela's wide-ranging petro-diplomacy. Venezuela's capacity to borrow abroad to finance ambitious social programs may well atrophy, reinforcing the decline in President Hugo Chavez's standing at home on the eve of local elections.
The downward trend in commodity prices will clearly affect Brazil, through a decrease in exports. Unlike commodity driven countries like Chile and Peru, Brazil has a more diversified export base. Meanwhile, the decrease in commodity prices should reduce inflationary pressures, which in turn may give more freedom to the Brazilian Central Bank, which may not need to hike interest rates at the same rate as in 2008. The expected further reduction in growth or negative growth in emerging and developed economies, rather than the fall in commodity prices alone will have more effect on Brazil’s economic outlook.
Major exporters like Canada and Australia which experienced major terms of trade bumps during the commodity boom are also vulnerable, even if commodities make up a smaller portion of their growth and exports than the fuel exporters in the emerging world.
If commodity prices remain weak, producers will lower consumption over time, removing a source of aggregate demand that offset slowing growth earlier this year. For example, export growth from Middle Eastern, Latin American and African economies helped Asian goods exporters to offset slowing demand from the U.S., and more recently the EU. If that demand slows, it may be the final nail for many Asian exporters."
Aloha, Brad
Interesting searches by readers of this blog
A sample of searches on this blog today:
To the Incat employee in Hobart from a few days ago, today somebody in Hong Kong was looking for information on the Natchan Rera. Maybe there is a lease or sale to be had there:
From IP Address
118.102.11.# ISP
Location
Country:
Hong Kong
Lat/Long:
22.25, 114.1667
Also for the Rolls Royce employee in R.I. who checks this blog once or twice a day, today, somebody in Christchurch, NZ, had the following search:
Location
Country:
New Zealand
City:
Christchurch
Referring URL
http://www.google.co.nz/search?hl=en&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=cwf%20hamilton%20against%20rolls%20royce%20in%20water%20propulsion%20equipment&spell=1
Search Words
cwf hamilton against rolls royce in water propulsion equipment
From the above Google search the following interesting documents come up about CWF Hamilton of NZ: http://www.frst.govt.nz/files/images/Manufacturing_Hamilton_Jet.pdf
and: http://www.canterburysdigest.co.nz/details.php?id=325
To the person in Honolulu with the following search:
Location
Hawaii
City:
Honolulu
Referring URL
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=nauseous%20on%20super%20ferry%20from%20oahu%20to%20maui%3F&start=10&sa=N
Search Engine
google.com
Search Words
nauseous on super ferry from oahu to maui?
Here is what you are looking for:
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/02/seastate-barf-o-meter-index-v20.html
And: http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/01/hi-superferry-survey-of-seasickness-on.html
I have noticed in the past few days I have had more industry and foreign hits on the following post than almost any other. I almost forgot about this post:
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/01/more-on-goaljhsv.html
The answer to the following question is 2, but only 1 actually operating commercially so far:
Location
State:
Maryland
City:
Bethesda
Referring URL
http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4ADBR_enUS288US288&q=hawaii+superferry+fleet+size
Search Words
hawaii superferry fleet size
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry....ent-interesting.html
Lastly, the answer for two different searches today from India is Beaufort Force 0 stands for "Calm Flat. No wind. Water surface like a mirror. Smoke rises vertically." Seems like it must have been a radio or TV trivia question or something:
Location
Country:
India
City:
Delhi
Referring URL
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=In%20beaufort%20scale%20O%20stands%20for&btnG=Search
Search Words
in beaufort scale o stands for
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry....meter-index-v20.html
Location
Country:
India
City:
Bombay
Referring URL
http://www.google.co.in/search?hl=en&q=in%20beaufort%20scale%20what%20does%20o%20stand%20for&meta=
Search Words
in beaufort scale what does o stand for
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry....meter-index-v20.html
Aloha, Brad
To the Incat employee in Hobart from a few days ago, today somebody in Hong Kong was looking for information on the Natchan Rera. Maybe there is a lease or sale to be had there:
From IP Address
118.102.11.# ISP
Location
Country:
Hong Kong
Lat/Long:
22.25, 114.1667
Also for the Rolls Royce employee in R.I. who checks this blog once or twice a day, today, somebody in Christchurch, NZ, had the following search:
Location
Country:
New Zealand
City:
Christchurch
Referring URL
http://www.google.co.nz/search?hl=en&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=cwf%20hamilton%20against%20rolls%20royce%20in%20water%20propulsion%20equipment&spell=1
Search Words
cwf hamilton against rolls royce in water propulsion equipment
From the above Google search the following interesting documents come up about CWF Hamilton of NZ: http://www.frst.govt.nz/files/images/Manufacturing_Hamilton_Jet.pdf
and: http://www.canterburysdigest.co.nz/details.php?id=325
To the person in Honolulu with the following search:
Location
Hawaii
City:
Honolulu
Referring URL
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=nauseous%20on%20super%20ferry%20from%20oahu%20to%20maui%3F&start=10&sa=N
Search Engine
google.com
Search Words
nauseous on super ferry from oahu to maui?
Here is what you are looking for:
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/02/seastate-barf-o-meter-index-v20.html
And: http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/01/hi-superferry-survey-of-seasickness-on.html
I have noticed in the past few days I have had more industry and foreign hits on the following post than almost any other. I almost forgot about this post:
http://hisuperferry.blogspot.com/2008/01/more-on-goaljhsv.html
The answer to the following question is 2, but only 1 actually operating commercially so far:
Location
State:
Maryland
City:
Bethesda
Referring URL
http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4ADBR_enUS288US288&q=hawaii+superferry+fleet+size
Search Words
hawaii superferry fleet size
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry....ent-interesting.html
Lastly, the answer for two different searches today from India is Beaufort Force 0 stands for "Calm Flat. No wind. Water surface like a mirror. Smoke rises vertically." Seems like it must have been a radio or TV trivia question or something:
Location
Country:
India
City:
Delhi
Referring URL
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=In%20beaufort%20scale%20O%20stands%20for&btnG=Search
Search Words
in beaufort scale o stands for
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry....meter-index-v20.html
Location
Country:
India
City:
Bombay
Referring URL
http://www.google.co.in/search?hl=en&q=in%20beaufort%20scale%20what%20does%20o%20stand%20for&meta=
Search Words
in beaufort scale what does o stand for
Visit Entry Page
http://hisuperferry....meter-index-v20.html
Aloha, Brad
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Multi-media loose ends and searching this blog
Noticed a day or two ago somebody from Hobart, Tasmania was clicking on my blog looking for information on the Natchan Rera and Natchan World. It reminded me that they both stopped operations in Japan at the beginning of this month. I tried to find if they have been re-deployed anywhere else yet, but could not find an indication of that. The Natchan Rera and World are large, high-end, luxury Incat fast ferries. Believe it or not, the market for fast ferries is becoming tighter and more narrow each month now. At one end is still relatively high cost of fuel. In the middle, with a large fast ferry, is the need to service a relatively large population with some affluence in a maritime environment where the distance of the transit is ideally less than 80 miles and there is some sort of nitch opportunity relative to air or land transportation. And, at the other end, is the current global economy which is dampening consumer and business spending in almost all locales. That doesn't leave too many places in the world to re-deploy 2 large new fast ferries, but I think I found an idea:
It would be to have the two vessels based out of Ad Dawhah, Qatar with trips to Abu Dhabi or Dubai, UAE and from Qatar to Al Manamah, Bahrain. From Qatar to UAE is a little too long, but the fuel should be cheaper there to make it work. From Qatar to Bahrain would be an ideal distance. The searoute avoids having to take longer distances on land and avoids having to cross borders with Saudi Arabia. The two UAE cities have the population and affluence, even in the current global economy, to make it work. The luxury of the above two vessels would fit the above markets. The economics would work, but I don't know if the logistics or politics would interfere or not.
View Larger Map
I also recently came across the following global map of much of the commercial marine traffic live on the net. Can play around with it, it's interesting: http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx
Lastly, here is a good place to monitor ASB's rollercoaster ride. Click on 'Price Chart' to see a good manipulatible chart and below that official press releases: http://www.investsmart.com.au/shares/asx/Austal-ASB.asp
BTW, I recently installed software where I can see the traffic on this blog. It's between 100 to 200 hits a day. About a third of them are Google searches where I can tell a lot of them don't know how to do good boolean searches, and miss the data they are looking for, which is often somewhere in this blog. Remember, with Blogger or blogspot.com, there is a search field in the top left corner for what you are looking for in the entire history of the blog, not just the current post you are on. About another third of the traffic on this blog is from industry and government sites directly involved with this technology, including from cities like Honolulu, Perth, Hobart, Canberra, Mobile, Washington, DC, Beijing, Taipei, Hong Kong, and various related sites in Maine, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Virginia, Maryland, and Florida. The other third seem to be interested Hawaii residents and visitors planning their trip from the mainland.
Aloha, Brad
It would be to have the two vessels based out of Ad Dawhah, Qatar with trips to Abu Dhabi or Dubai, UAE and from Qatar to Al Manamah, Bahrain. From Qatar to UAE is a little too long, but the fuel should be cheaper there to make it work. From Qatar to Bahrain would be an ideal distance. The searoute avoids having to take longer distances on land and avoids having to cross borders with Saudi Arabia. The two UAE cities have the population and affluence, even in the current global economy, to make it work. The luxury of the above two vessels would fit the above markets. The economics would work, but I don't know if the logistics or politics would interfere or not.
View Larger Map
I also recently came across the following global map of much of the commercial marine traffic live on the net. Can play around with it, it's interesting: http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx
Lastly, here is a good place to monitor ASB's rollercoaster ride. Click on 'Price Chart' to see a good manipulatible chart and below that official press releases: http://www.investsmart.com.au/shares/asx/Austal-ASB.asp
BTW, I recently installed software where I can see the traffic on this blog. It's between 100 to 200 hits a day. About a third of them are Google searches where I can tell a lot of them don't know how to do good boolean searches, and miss the data they are looking for, which is often somewhere in this blog. Remember, with Blogger or blogspot.com, there is a search field in the top left corner for what you are looking for in the entire history of the blog, not just the current post you are on. About another third of the traffic on this blog is from industry and government sites directly involved with this technology, including from cities like Honolulu, Perth, Hobart, Canberra, Mobile, Washington, DC, Beijing, Taipei, Hong Kong, and various related sites in Maine, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Virginia, Maryland, and Florida. The other third seem to be interested Hawaii residents and visitors planning their trip from the mainland.
Aloha, Brad
JHSV Contract Awarded Well Over Budget
On Nov. 13th, the JHSV contract was awarded by the DoD Naval Sea Systems Command to, "Austal USA, Mobile Ala., is being awarded a $185,433,564 modification to previously awarded contract (N00024-08-C-2217) for the firm quantity of one Joint High Speed Vessel (JHSV)..."
Recently, in September 2008, Congress passed the "DUNCAN HUNTER NATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT FOR FISCAL YEAR 2009." That was the budget agreed to and passed by both houses of Congress and signed by Bush. Since then, the U.S. dollar has actually appreciated in value, and applicable commodity prices are less than at that time. In that Defense Authorization Act for FY2009, one JHSV is budgeted at Line Item #161, see page 425 (p. 453 of the .pdf). Bush requested $168,846,000 for the JHSV, and the House and Senate both authorized that exact same amount in law.
Back on April 26, 2007, The U.S. Navy PEO Ships made a presentation to industry on JHSV in which it was stated, "Cost is a critical consideration," and the "Cost Goal remains $150M for the lead ship, $130M for follow ships (FY08 dollars)." Relatively speaking dollars are actually worth more now than they were then and commodity prices are now lower.
But, when the actual JHSV Solicitation RFP N00024-07-R-2219 came out it became clear from it's wording that "cost would not be critical," that in fact low-bidders could be arbitrarily disqualified, and that there would be many exceptions to price/cost allowed.
It is interesting to compare that the total cost of each of the two similar designs recently completed by Austal, hulls A615 and A616 under MARAD were:
"XVII. Determined, in accordance with Recommendations XIV and XVI and pursuant to Sections 1101(f) and 1104A(e)(5) of the Act, that the total estimated Actual Cost of the Vessels subject to adjustments as determined by the Associate Administrator for Shipbuilding, is as indicated below:
------------------------------------------Vessel 1---------Vessel 2------------Total
Estimated Actual Cost (AC)----$88,446,592----$89,556,473----$178,003,065"
So, the recently awarded contract for 1 JHSV is almost $17 million more than Bush requested and both Houses of Congress authorized. But beyond that, it is $35 million over what PEOS indicated a little more than a year ago when dollars were relatively no more valuable and commodity material prices were higher. And this non-combatant JHSV would be more than TWICE the price of what it cost to build comparably designed civilian vessels built at the same location by the same workforce expected to build this JHSV.
It would be interesting to see what the cost proposals were from the other two competitors for the JHSV. A good guess is they were both less than $185,000,000.
This proposed JHSV is not quite as over budget as the LCS, but it is over budget by at least 10% (by Congressional authorization) to 20% (by prior DoD statements) and probably more when compared to the cost and easily altered efficacy of Austal hull A616.
$185,433,564 for one JHSV is pure and simple well over budget "gold-plating"
Aloha, Brad
Recently, in September 2008, Congress passed the "DUNCAN HUNTER NATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT FOR FISCAL YEAR 2009." That was the budget agreed to and passed by both houses of Congress and signed by Bush. Since then, the U.S. dollar has actually appreciated in value, and applicable commodity prices are less than at that time. In that Defense Authorization Act for FY2009, one JHSV is budgeted at Line Item #161, see page 425 (p. 453 of the .pdf). Bush requested $168,846,000 for the JHSV, and the House and Senate both authorized that exact same amount in law.
Back on April 26, 2007, The U.S. Navy PEO Ships made a presentation to industry on JHSV in which it was stated, "Cost is a critical consideration," and the "Cost Goal remains $150M for the lead ship, $130M for follow ships (FY08 dollars)." Relatively speaking dollars are actually worth more now than they were then and commodity prices are now lower.
But, when the actual JHSV Solicitation RFP N00024-07-R-2219 came out it became clear from it's wording that "cost would not be critical," that in fact low-bidders could be arbitrarily disqualified, and that there would be many exceptions to price/cost allowed.
It is interesting to compare that the total cost of each of the two similar designs recently completed by Austal, hulls A615 and A616 under MARAD were:
"XVII. Determined, in accordance with Recommendations XIV and XVI and pursuant to Sections 1101(f) and 1104A(e)(5) of the Act, that the total estimated Actual Cost of the Vessels subject to adjustments as determined by the Associate Administrator for Shipbuilding, is as indicated below:
------------------------------------------Vessel 1---------Vessel 2------------Total
Estimated Actual Cost (AC)----$88,446,592----$89,556,473----$178,003,065"
So, the recently awarded contract for 1 JHSV is almost $17 million more than Bush requested and both Houses of Congress authorized. But beyond that, it is $35 million over what PEOS indicated a little more than a year ago when dollars were relatively no more valuable and commodity material prices were higher. And this non-combatant JHSV would be more than TWICE the price of what it cost to build comparably designed civilian vessels built at the same location by the same workforce expected to build this JHSV.
It would be interesting to see what the cost proposals were from the other two competitors for the JHSV. A good guess is they were both less than $185,000,000.
This proposed JHSV is not quite as over budget as the LCS, but it is over budget by at least 10% (by Congressional authorization) to 20% (by prior DoD statements) and probably more when compared to the cost and easily altered efficacy of Austal hull A616.
$185,433,564 for one JHSV is pure and simple well over budget "gold-plating"
Aloha, Brad
Monday, November 17, 2008
Fish and Limu are allowed on HSF
Responding to the letter of 11/17 in The Garden Island News, "Superferry concerns need perspective" from Peter Antonson where he states, "...hundreds of pounds of fish have not been removed from Maui," and "During the summer, Maui's mayor got hysterical about 400 pounds of fish in a month that never left Maui."
Actually, fish and limu are allowed to be transported on the Superferry. It is the opihi, crustaceans, and rocks that are not allowed on the Superferry. In the case of opihi, unless they are immature, there is no penalty for being caught attempting to smuggle them aboard. Fish and limu are allowed to 'flow freely.'
And how much was that? When ridership on the ferry was low in the Spring and Fall it was not much, but when ridership was high in May thru August the amount of fish and limu that was transported via HSF was significant. From the Oversight Taskforce Committee/DLNR reports for fish that was: 370lbs., 316lbs., 488lbs., and 190lbs. in successive months. For limu it was: 477lbs. and 475lbs. in successive months. This does not include significant weights of opihi that were confiscated after having been harvested and killed nevertheless.
Let us be clear, with an inadequate Governor's EO and Act 2, neighbor island resource depletion is a real issue when the Superferry is running at high ridership. Thankfully it has been running at low ridership since late August, and not to Kauai at all. For interested readers there is a new video on Youtube "Superferry Plunder: Kauai fishermen talk story" about this:
Aloha, Brad
Actually, fish and limu are allowed to be transported on the Superferry. It is the opihi, crustaceans, and rocks that are not allowed on the Superferry. In the case of opihi, unless they are immature, there is no penalty for being caught attempting to smuggle them aboard. Fish and limu are allowed to 'flow freely.'
And how much was that? When ridership on the ferry was low in the Spring and Fall it was not much, but when ridership was high in May thru August the amount of fish and limu that was transported via HSF was significant. From the Oversight Taskforce Committee/DLNR reports for fish that was: 370lbs., 316lbs., 488lbs., and 190lbs. in successive months. For limu it was: 477lbs. and 475lbs. in successive months. This does not include significant weights of opihi that were confiscated after having been harvested and killed nevertheless.
Let us be clear, with an inadequate Governor's EO and Act 2, neighbor island resource depletion is a real issue when the Superferry is running at high ridership. Thankfully it has been running at low ridership since late August, and not to Kauai at all. For interested readers there is a new video on Youtube "Superferry Plunder: Kauai fishermen talk story" about this:
Aloha, Brad
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Shipyard Workers Demand Investigation Into Navy Contract
Look what the webbots brought back last night and today:
Review of Navy contract award sought Nov. 16, 2008 Portland Press Herald - Maine
"...Keenan said there is concern that the Navy's latest decision 'will create more layoffs and there is fear that cost, quality, craftsmanship...not taken into consideration when contracts are awarded. I, like the 3,000 other shipbuilders, just want peace of mind that it was a fair competition with bids reflecting what it truly costs to build and deliver the final product (Joint High Speed Vessel) to the Navy,' he wrote."
Shipyard Workers Demand Investigation Into Navy Contract Nov. 15, 2008 WMTW ABC TV - Bath, Maine
"The...president of the largest union at Bath Iron Works wants Maine's congressional delegation to look into the award of a 10-ship contract to an Alabama shipyard..."
Investigation of Navy shipbuilding contract sought Nov. 15, 2008 Bangor Daily News - Bangor, Maine
Aloha, Brad
Review of Navy contract award sought Nov. 16, 2008 Portland Press Herald - Maine
"...Keenan said there is concern that the Navy's latest decision 'will create more layoffs and there is fear that cost, quality, craftsmanship...not taken into consideration when contracts are awarded. I, like the 3,000 other shipbuilders, just want peace of mind that it was a fair competition with bids reflecting what it truly costs to build and deliver the final product (Joint High Speed Vessel) to the Navy,' he wrote."
Shipyard Workers Demand Investigation Into Navy Contract Nov. 15, 2008 WMTW ABC TV - Bath, Maine
"The...president of the largest union at Bath Iron Works wants Maine's congressional delegation to look into the award of a 10-ship contract to an Alabama shipyard..."
Investigation of Navy shipbuilding contract sought Nov. 15, 2008 Bangor Daily News - Bangor, Maine
Aloha, Brad
Friday, November 14, 2008
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