Monday, August 4, 2008

OK, is it 'passenger bookings' or 'ridership' 40% increase?

Is it 'passenger bookings' or 'ridership'? They are apparently two different things.

The only way to get the 40 percent increase figure is to compare the 36,600 July passengers to the 26,175 June 'actual ridership' reported to DOT (+39.8%) and not the 30,000 June 'passenger bookings' reported to the media (+22%). So, from one month to the next a different set of numbers is being reported to the media.

Still for July they averaged covering a little more than their fuel expenses for the month, but not all of their expenses, only the second month of operations that even that has been the case. Keep in mind June, July, and August will likely be their best months of the year.

Last month the company reported to PBN, "Superferry officials said the Alakai had more than 30,000 passenger bookings in June, up 20 percent over May."

But to DOT the company reported, "HSF reporting format to Harbors is by revenue generated. So for passengers departing Honolulu in June, they show 12,992, and for passengers departing Kahului in June, they show 13,183. Autos departing Honolulu in June are 3,095 and autos departing Kahului in June are 3,182. Commercial vehicles departing Honolulu are 278 in June and 288 departing Kahului in June. I'm not sure if "bookings in June" is the same thing as units reported to Harbors. I tend to think "bookings" encompasses more than actual ridership. HSF provides a brief to the Oversight Task Force which is on our DOT website. This brief typically includes their passenger and vehicle counts for the reported period." That is 26,175 actual ridership and 6,843 actual vehicles transported for the month of June. That is a 3,825 difference in people. It was explained to me that 'passenger bookings' includes people who made reservations and paid money but who either cancelled or rescheduled, but the 3,825 difference did not actually ride on the vessel in June.

Now, which one are they comparing July to June in the media today?...the 'passenger bookings' they reported to the media last month or the 'actual ridership' they reported to DOT last month?

Well, they reported today to at least 3 media outlets; they all say the same, so I'll reference the KGMB-9 report:

http://kgmb9.com/main/content/view/8758/76/
"Superferry Claims 40% Jump In Ridership"
Written by KGMB9 News August 04, 2008
"The Hawaii Superferry today said the number of passengers riding the vessel in July was up approximately 40 percent over June figures...The number of vehicles in July is up 36 percent over June, according to Superferry stats. More than 36,600 passengers and 9,200 vehicles traveled between Oahu and Maui during the month of July, averaging 390 passengers and 99 vehicles per voyage. June passenger count was previously reported up 20 percent over May..."

The only way to get the 40 percent increase figure is to compare the 36,600 July passengers to the 26,175 June 'actual ridership' reported to DOT (+39.8%) and not the 30,000 June 'passenger bookings' reported to the media (+22%). Furthermore, the vehicle difference between June and July appears to be +34% and not +36%. So, from one month to the next a different set of numbers is being reported to the media. Also, the reported 20% increase of June over May was for 'passenger bookings,' not the 'actual ridership' now being reported.

Lastly, their average passengers and vehicles per voyage for July do not add up. It appears to be over by a few for each, probably due to their rounding and/or number of voyages. Still for July they averaged covering a little more than their fuel expenses for the month, but not all of their expenses, only the second month of operations that even that has been the case. Keep in mind June, July, and August will likely be their best months of the year.

Aloha, Brad

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