Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Flurry of Optimistic Shipbuilding Forecasts Follow on the Net

Events of the past month pushed the timing of the following forecast on August 21:
Updated Pragmatic Forecast for HSF, JHSV, LCS, etc.

What followed was an interesting avalanche of forecasts from financial, company, and ship aficionados each with their own mostly overly optimistic outlooks that do not take into consideration the fiscal and economic position that the U.S. government and economy have been mismanaged into.

First, to follow were the financial analyst references:
Austal "Waiting for US catalysts" (Neutral) Byers By Martin Byers Australian Industrial Transportation; Australian Industrial Goods & Services; Australasian Industrial; Australasian Industrial Goods & Services; Australasian Shipbuilding; Australasian Industrial Transportation. Companies. ASB.AX Austal ...UBS Research: Transportation - http://clientportal.ibb.ubs.com/portal/index.jsp?page=eqrschstockrschsector&IndCatCode=TRA&MarketCode=GL&MarketCap=X
Austal expects US market to take off in 2009-2010 Shipbuilder says making "calculated risk" in US investment. 25 Aug 2008 11:41 PM.Business Spectator - http://www.businessspectator.com.au

Second, came the company:
Austal has reported a net profit of $52 million The Australian - Sydney, Australia HIGH oil prices and gloomy economic conditions have dampened commercial demand for ships, prompting builder Austal to focus on the lucrative military market...
Austal parent's profit surges; Mobile in holding pattern Press-Register - al.com - Mobile, AL, USA The company hopes to build up to 10 Joint High Speed Vessels, high-speed passenger-vehicle ferries used for transporting troops and equipment...

Third, were detailed (detached from the economy) forecasts by the webs military shiplover blogs:
Fantasy Shipbuilding FYDP By Galrahn(Galrahn) 1 Joint High Speed Vessel (1 x .2) 1 LHA-5 (1 x 3.5) 2 LPD-17s (2 x 1.7) FY12 - 13 ships $13.05 billion + $2 billion CVN = Over budget $2.05 billion 1 Mobile Landing Platform (MLP) (1 v .9) 1 Large Medium-Speed Roll-On/Roll-Off (LMSR)...
Fantasy Shipbuilding By Moose(Moose) 1 Joint High Speed Vessel (1 x .2) 2 LPD-17s (2 x 1.7) 1 LHA-6 (1 x 3.5) 1 CVN78 4 Expeditionary Patrol Craft (enhanced M80) (4 x .02) FY13 - 13 ships + 4 Patrol Craft $12.58 billion + $2 billion CVN = Over budget $1.58 billion...
Galrahn’s Fantasy Shipbuilding By charbookguy Inspired, of course, by this post at Information Dissemination: FY10-4 Virginia class (SSN) (4 x 2.0)=$8 billion 5 Joint High Speed Vessels (5 x .2)=$1 billion 10 Sea Fighters (10 x .3)=$3 billion 100 Stilletto FAC (100 x...

Lastly, to mention here from: http://www.al.com/business/press-register/index.ssf?/base/business/1219742142217850.xml&coll=3&thispage=2
"...Bob Browning, chief executive officer of Austal Ltd., said the local yard is 'perfectly positioned' to build the military vessels. 'We have the trained workforce available today, we have the facilities available today to support construction, and we have already built a vessel of very similar design (to the JHSV) right here in Mobile,' said Browning, who works from Mobile."

Interesting how it's never mentioned in the press information on the structural history of the only two large aluminium hull vessels they have built and floated from that site. The detail of that structural history is not necessarily something to boast about.

Aloha, Brad

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