HSF Prediction for the coming year...

Here was a comment I posted to a blog just now:

I noticed some of the comments above are thinking/hoping with decisions like this, that the issue will just go away. Here are a few little tidbits I am hearing. A book will be coming out soon on this whole affair...you can already buy that book about the Superferry on Amazon.com. Also, I hear second hand Derrick DePledge has another series coming up on this, but again with no strong conclusions.

Lastly, I offer this forecast. If Obama wins the election, the LCS and JHSV contracts may get cancelled and within a few months after that HSF goes out of business. On the other hand, if McCain gets elected, John Lehman may be appointed Secretary of Defense and usher through the LCS and JHSV contracts mostly to Austal, and HSF will keep operating at a loss for another year or two. You heard it here first. Aloha, Brad
06/09/2008 11:26:46 a.m.

From the article I posted the above comment to:
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080609/NEWS09/806090340/1001/LOCALNEWSFRONT
Posted on: Monday, June 9, 2008
"Ferry's traffic impact minor;
Vehicles flow smoothly in area around Kahului Harbor, report finds"
By Christie Wilson Advertiser Neighbor Island Editor

"...But Irene Bowie of Maui Tomorrow said "it's too soon" for officials to close the books on ferry-related traffic impacts because Superferry hasn't been operating long enough to establish reliable data..."Even with those numbers that they reported (for May) it still wasn't even half of the load they are capable of carrying, so I don't think the traffic studies were adequate," Bowie said. "And if Superferry is going to be successful, there's going to be more vehicle numbers."

...The highest vehicle load during the May 23-26 period occurred Friday, May 23, when a total of 683 vehicles passed through the ferry's Kahului site, the report said. That included 188 vehicles arriving on the morning sailing, 75 departures, and the 119 vehicles that passed through to pick up or drop off passengers. The evening voyage saw 153 vehicles arrive from Honolulu, 59 leave, and 89 pass through to pick up or drop off passengers...Superferry officials have said they expected a small percentage of walk-on passengers and fewer than 40 cars passing through the site to drop off or pick up passengers."

Even on their best weekend, notice the low numbers departing from Maui. They have a PR perception problem on Maui, and an even bigger perception problem on Kauai. Aloha, Brad